Daily Briefs


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01 September 2023, Friday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #610

EM In Brief: Commercial whaling in Iceland sparks criticism | War in Ukraine: Day 554

UK's Defence Secretary resigns; UBS to cut jobs despite profit; Calls for Aiwanger's resignation in Germany

War in Ukraine: Day 554
Rishika Yadav

War on Ground
On 31 August, according to Ukrinform, Ukraine successfully deployed its own long-range weapon, hitting a target 700 kilometres away. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's President, shared the news on Telegram, emphasizing progress in battlefield operations. The Ministry of Defence announced the arrival of weapons and armoured medical evacuation vehicles. The President discussed winter preparations, energy systems, and security measures.
 
On 31 August, Hanna Maliar, Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Defence, reported that Ukraine's defence forces are actively conducting an offensive operation in the south, particularly in the Novodanylivka–Novoprokopivka area. Troops are making progress, with a focus on consolidating gained territory. Ukraine's forces are also achieving success in the Bakhmut and Melitopol directions, as stated by Andriy Kovaliov, the spokesman for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
 
 On 31 August, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's Foreign Affairs Minister and José Manuel Albares, Spanish counterpart, discussed Ukraine's EU accession talks and increased military aid from Spain. Kuleba highlighted Spain's EU Presidency and the priority of launching Ukraine's accession talks in 2023. He also mentioned expanding Spain's valuable military assistance to Ukraine. Kuleba's working visit includes meetings in the Czech Republic, France, and Spain, culminating in an informal EU foreign affairs ministers' meeting in Toledo.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 31 August, voting in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions began, while the Kherson and Luhansk regions will start on 02 September. Authorities in separatist and Russia's occupied regions of Ukraine initiated early voting in local elections scheduled for 10 September. The elections lack genuine opposition as dissent is brutally suppressed. Due to safety concerns, residents in frontline areas can vote at "mobile" polling stations under Russia's military surveillance. 

On 31 August, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) announced the thwarting of Ukraine's sabotage group's attempt to infiltrate the Bryansk region, near the Ukraine-Belarus border. Two Ukraine fighters were reportedly killed, and five others were detained. The group included personnel from Ukraine's SBU security service, GUR military intelligence, and Spetsnaz special forces, with intentions to carry out high-profile attacks on military and energy infrastructure. The FSB conducted the operation jointly with Russia's National Guard and law enforcement. A weapons cache seized from the group included rifles, grenades, and ammunition of NATO standard.
 
On 31 August, according to Russia's Defence Ministry, Russia's air defences intercepted a drone heading towards Moscow, with the drone later identified as Ukraine's. Sergei Sobyanin, Moscow's Mayor, reported the incident, saying there were no casualties or damage. The interception led to flight delays and restrictions at Moscow airports.  

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  

On 31 August, according to Deutsche Welle, German officials anticipate the government will prolong its trusteeship over an eastern German oil refinery, which is mostly owned by Rosneft subsidiaries. The trusteeship was enacted after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and was set to expire in September. The PCK (ultra clean Pipeline Compatible Kerosene) refinery in Schwedt plays a significant role in supplying fuel to northeastern Germany. Jörg Steinbach, State Economy Minister, expects the trusteeship to be extended for another six months, stating it is the right course of action.
 
On 31 August, Igor Girkin, a jailed former separatist commander, declared his candidacy for Russia's presidency in the upcoming 2024 election. Girkin, who is detained on extremism charges, is known for his support of Russia's actions in Ukraine but has criticized Putin's leadership. He claimed to be more competent in military matters than Putin and criticized Russia's leader for being influenced by Western partners and security agencies. Girkin was sentenced to life in prison by a Dutch court for his involvement in the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in 2014.
 
On 31 August, BAE Systems announced its increased support to Ukraine's armed forces, signing agreements with the Ukraine's government. These agreements involve collaborating with Ukraine's Armed Forces to understand their future needs and revitalizing Ukraine's industrial base. Additionally, BAE Systems will explore the potential production of 105 millimeters Light Guns in Ukraine. This move follows Ukraine and Sweden's intent to cooperate in producing and servicing the CV90 platform, currently manufactured by BAE Systems' Hägglunds business in Sweden. Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine's Minister for Strategic Industry, said: "I am grateful to BAE Systems for the bold decision to stand side by side with us in the fight against Russian aggression and building the future of the Ukrainian defence industry. Together with the company, we will be able to localize the production of advanced weapons."
 
On 31 August, Aleksandr Lukashenko, Belarus's President, criticized Poland and the Baltic states for demanding the withdrawal of Wagner Group from Belarus, calling their demands "unreasonable and stupid." He pointed out their military buildups near Belarus and reminded Poland of its suspension of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty obligations with Belarus. Lukashenko warned that Belarus would respond to any threats, especially those originating from self-exiled opposition members in neighboring countries.
 
On 31 August, according to The Wall Street Journal, the US imposed sanctions on Russia's company, Intellekt, for alleged support of North Korea's development of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles. This move was coordinated with South Korea and Japan, aiming to counter North Korea's recent failed satellite launch. The sanctions target three entities, including Sergey Mikhaylovich Kozlov, Russia's national, and Jon Jin Yong, North Korea's national, associated with Intellekt. 

References
"Zelensky reports successful use of long-range weapons: Target hit at 700 km distance," Ukrinform, 31 August 2023
"Defense forces gaining foothold on Novodanylivka–Novoprokopivka section – Maliar," Ukrinform, 31 August 2023
"Kuleba, Albares discuss Ukraine's EU accession talks, military aid from Spain," Ukrinform, 31 August 2023
"Local Polls Open in Russian-Occupied Areas of Ukraine," The Moscow Times, 31 August 2023
"Russia Says Killed, Detained Ukrainian Saboteurs in Border Region," The Moscow Times, 31 August 2023
"Russia Downs Drone Heading for Moscow," The Moscow Times, 31 August 2023
"German minister expects control of Russian-owned refinery to be extended," Deutsche Welle, 31 August 2023
"Jailed Russian nationalist declares presidential bid," Le Monde, 31 August 2023
"BAE Systems establishes local presence and signs agreements to support Ukraine," Bae Systems, 31 August 2023
"Lukashenko: Demands on withdrawal of PMC Wagner from Belarus are groundless, stupid," Belarus.by, 31 August 2023
Richard Vanderford, "US Sanctions Russian Company Over Alleged Support for North Korean Weapons Programs," The Wall Street Journal, 31 August 2023


In Brief
Genesy Balasingam 

FINLAND
Anti-racist agenda amidst scandals
On 31 August, Finland's government, after consultation with 100 representatives of civil society, introduced a set of constitutional measures to promote equality and to combat hate speeches and discrimination. This government decision is being debated in reaction to a succession of racial scandals and ties to Nazism. The controversies sparked considerable problems within the four-party coalition administration, resulting in fights between the liberal Swedish People's Party (SFP) and the far-right populist Finns Party. The new policy also makes Holocaust denial, as well as the usage of Nazi and communist symbols and beliefs, illegal. Petteri Orpo, Finland's Prime Minister, said: "There is no room for racism in Finland," Round table conversations and national efforts to promote equality in educational settings are on the agenda. These measures will be carried out in accordance with a distinct action plan. (Claudia Chiappa, "Scandal-ridden Finnish government presents anti-racism agenda," Politico, 31 August 2023; David Mac Dougall, "Finnish government renounces racism after a summer rocked by racist scandals,Euronews, 31 August 2023)

Four Neo-Nazist men accused of producing 3D printed weapons
On 31 August, four Finland's men were charged with preparing assaults on refugees and political opponents. They are also suspected of producing 3D printed weapons and firearms. These weapons are claimed to be manufactured in anticipation of a confrontation in Finland. These suspects are alleged to have neo Nazi views and to believe in the concept of accelerationism. ("4 Finnish men charged with plotting racially motivated attacks using 3D printed weapons," Associated Press, 31 August 2023)

GERMANY
Calls for Aiwanger's resignation
On 31 August, the members of the Social Democratic Party asked Hubert Aiwanger, Bavarian Deputy Minister President, to resign following the political storm that it has created ahead of the upcoming elections on 08 October. The accusations levelled against Aiwanger have been seen as highly troubling by critics. The public has also launched a political campaign against him, pressing the government to take action against Aiwanger. Markus Soder, a member of the center-right Christian Social Union will be re-elected as Aiwanger's replacement. (Peter Wilke and Hans Von Der Burchard, "Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party calls for Hubert Aiwanger's resignation following Nazi scandal," Politico, 31 August 2023)

ICELAND
Commercial whaling sparks criticism from welfare groups
On 31 August, Iceland resumed commercial fin whale hunting with stronger hunting method standards and oversight. Animal welfare advocacy groups and climate advocates have also denounced this decision. They claim that the government passed up an opportunity to do the right thing. Commercial whaling, according to detractors, is also terrible for Iceland and the environment. One of the main points they make is that the people of Iceland do not consume whale flesh and hence do not support this practice. (Sylvia Hui, "Iceland says commercial whaling can resume after temporary ban," Associated Press, 31 August 2023)

NORWAY
Questioning of Minister of Foreign Affairs over shareholding transparency 
On 31 August, Anniken Huitfeldt, Foreign Minister was informed of fresh information on shares in Norwegian listed firms purchased and sold by her spouse since her appointment as Foreign Minister. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs asked the Ministry of Justice and Public Security's Legislation Department to conduct an assessment of the situation based on fresh facts and at the request of the Foreign Minister. In response, she said that she should have requested and explained the information concerning the shares her husband had with her spouse in order to be clear. Huitfeldt stated: "My priority right now is to assure complete transparency and to correct this mess. I really regret the error I committed. And I accept complete responsibility." Because she had no awareness of her husband's holdings, the Legislation Department certified the validity of her actions at both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the government. ("Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs requested conflict-of-interest assessment," Government.no, 31 August 2023)

SWEDEN
Statistics report shows employment and labour market status
On 31 August, Statistics Sweden released a comparative report indicating employment in 2022 and 2023. According to the research, the number of individuals working aged 15 to 74 increased by 63 000 in the second quarter of 2023 when compared to the same period in 2022. The demographic composition of the population has a significant impact on the employment rate. Women were employed at a lower rate than men. Younger and older adults have lower employment rates and are represented in various labor market status categories. Employment increased by 0.7 per cent points for women and 0.3 per cent points for men compared to the second quarter of 2022. This amounts to a 0.4 per cent point decrease in unemployment among women and a 0.2 per cent point decrease in unemployment among men compared to the same period in 2022. Foreign-born people have a greater unemployment rate than Swedish-born people. Outside the labour force are the labour market status categories of student, pensioner, sick, and others. During the summer, fewer people are unemployed than during the rest of the year. This is primarily due to the fact that some kids who are students throughout the school year work during the summer and are categorized as employed. ("Employment continued to increase in the second quarter of 2023," Statistics Sweden, 31 August 2023)

SWITZERLAND
UBS to cut jobs despite profit
On 31 August, UBS, the Swiss banking giant, warned that job losses are possible despite the bank's highest profit. This decision will assist the bank in cutting expenditures. UBS has revealed plans to fully absorb Credit Suisse's profitable domestic bank operation rather than spin it off as a separate firm. According to Sergio Ermotti, Chief Executive, complete integration will be the best conclusion for UBS, its stakeholders, and the Swiss economy. The whole integration, including client migration, will be finished in 2025. Investors appear to be positive about the merged group's prospects, therefore this decision has lifted USB's share price by more than 5 percent. ("UBS to cut 3,000 jobs despite record $29bn profit," BBC, 31 August 2023)

THE UK
Ben Wallace: Defence Secretary resigns
On 31 August, Ben Wallace, British Defence Secretary, sent a letter to Rishi Sunak, UK's Prime Minister expressing his desire to step down from his post in order to pursue new opportunities. In his resignation letter, he commended the Defence Ministry's progress and asked the government to continue to support it. Wallace is a well-known figure in Ukraine due to his unwavering support for Kyiv's fight against the Russian invasion. However, a few comments he made during the NATO summit in Lithuania in July were misconstrued. Oleksiy Reznikov, Ukraine's Defence Minister, expressed gratitude for the UKs military assistance in repelling the first wave of Russia's invasion. In response to Wallace's resignation, the prime minister heaped him with praise and praised him for his significant contribution. The administration has chosen Grant Shapps, the former Energy Secretary, as Wallace's replacement. ("Ben Wallace: UK defense minister resigns,Deutsche Welle, 31 August 2023)

INTERNATIONAL
Tunisia in deficit of funds to stop migrations
On 31 August, the chief negotiator of the controversial deal between Brussels and Tunis stated that Tunisia hasn't received EU funding yet to stop migrants coming to Europe. The contentious July agreement was a model for reducing migration from North Africa. Following an increase in migrant flow, the arrangement gave millions to Tunisia's authoritarian government in exchange for assistance in blocking boats carrying migrants. The agreement called for 105 million pounds to bolster Tunisia's border control activities, as well as an additional 150 million pounds to support the country's budget amid rising inflation. The EU had promised an additional 900 million pounds in cash provided Tunisia agreed to ratify an IMF bailout. Following the signing of the agreement, Tunisia observed a 69 per cent rise in migrant crossings, indicating that the agreement was not working. Gert Jan Koopman, Director General of the EU's Neighborhood Policy, stated that incoming monies should be used to enhance the EU's coast guards. (Gregorio Sorgi, "Tunisia yet to receive EU funds to stem migration, senior EU official says,Politico, 31 August 2023)

Sanctions against leaders of Niger coup
On 31 August, during talks in the Spanish city of Toledo, the foreign ministers of the EU along with the foreign minister of Niger's deposed civilian government agreed to take action against the military authorities who took power in Niger in late July. This meeting coincided with Niger's military rulers announcing the withdrawal of the French ambassador's diplomatic immunity in the country, ordering him to flee the country. Foreign ministers from the EU's 27 member states expressed their grave concern and alarm over the growing number of military coups on the African continent, with military commanders seizing control in Gabon. They have decided to begin drafting sanctions against coup leaders in Niger. However, the bloc's sanctions would include humanitarian exemptions. While the EU supported ECOWAS sanctions, it was more cautious in its support for any future military participation. Josep Borrell, EU's foreign policy head stated that the EU would carefully examine the ideas submitted by ECOWAS, while other ministers stated that they are still focused on a diplomatic solution. ("EU ministers back sanctions against Niger coup leaders,Deutsche Welle, 31 August 2023)

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